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As we approach the climax of this year’s Wimbledon Championships, Friday afternoon will see Men’s Singles semifinal action commence at The All England Club. With the four remaining men battling it out for a spot in the final, all eyes will be on the showcase semi that pits second seed Roger Federer against third seed and British No. 1 Andy Murray. The pair have met 23 times, in a rivalry that spans over almost ten years, and Federer currently leads the series 12-11. Both players are in fine form, having cruised through their first five matches with relative ease, which suggests this could be a particularly entertaining affair. On paper, this was the match that everyone wanted to see. Now, it’s time to dive into some records and statistics.
Murray’s Season So Far
First, let’s look at the Scot’s form coming into this match. Andy Murray is having a resurgent season, reaching the Australian Open final in January, his first Major final since 2013. He then went on to surprise many tennis fans by having an incredible clay season, winning his first clay court title in Munich, then grabbing his first Masters 1000 title in over two years, on the red clay in Madrid. His clay season concluded with a five-set semifinal loss to world No. 1 Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros.
As for the grass season, Murray’s grass court prowess has been on full display. Before Wimbledon, he secured a record-equalling fourth title at the Queen’s Club Championships, defeating Kevin Anderson in the final. At Wimbledon, Andy has looked fairly solid, dropping only two sets (One set to the giant Ivo Karlovic, the other to Italian Andreas Seppi). He got through his quarterfinal in straight sets against Canadian Vasek Pospisil.
Federer’s Season So Far
Now, Roger Federer. Looking at his season so far, it’s easy to say that it’s been a bit sub-par. His best result at a Grand Slam was a quarterfinal at the French Open, and he’s reached two Masters 1000 finals, with no success at taking home the trophy. His four titles have all come at lower tier events in Brisbane, Dubai, Istanbul, and Halle. However, it’s important to remember that the first half of the year has never been Federer’s favourite, especially in recent years. His 2014 season didn’t really pick up until he reached the Wimbledon final, after which he proceeded to win two Masters 1000 titles. If we compare Federer’s year-to-date points this year to his year-to-date points at this point last year, it turns out there is only a 35 point difference.
Federer’s success in the second half of the season can probably be attributed to his preference for faster courts, which favour his ultra-aggressive, net-charging tactics. This has been abundantly clear during the 2015 grass season. At his beloved warm-up tournament in Germany, Federer escaped a tight first-round match against Philipp Kohlschreiber, before bagging a record-shattering eighth Gerry Weber Open. At Wimbledon, Federer has looked absolutely stellar. The Swiss Maestro has dropped only one set, in a tie-break against huge-serving Aussie Sam Groth, and he’s only dropped serve once throughout the entire tournament. Despite how great Andy Murray has looked, it can be argued that Roger Federer has looked even better, and as we look more closely at some tournament statistics, this proves to be the case.
Statistics
The following table shows both players’ average statistics over the course of their five matches. Both players have faced a variety of big-servers and solid baseliners, so these stats should be pretty accurate indicators of their shape coming into the match. In each category, the better statistic is bolded:
Category | Federer | Murray |
% 1st serves in | 65.6 | 64.8 |
% 1st serve points won | 85.2 | 78.4 |
% 2nd serve points won | 67.4 | 56.2 |
Winners-Unforced Errors | + 25 | + 19 |
% 1st return points won | 35.2 | 32.6 |
% 2nd return points won | 53.4 | 56.2 |
Broke serve | 25 times | 23 times |
Broken | Once | 7 times |
Looking at these statistics, we can see that Federer edges Murray in all but one category. The highlight of Federer’s great stats is his incredible serving. Since his first match of the grass court season, the Fed Express has only been broken once. His first serve is firing, and he’s defending his second serve remarkably well. On top of this, his returning has been solid, posting better stats than Murray on the first serve return, and coming close on the second serve return. Ultimately this match will come down to the serve. If Federer keeps serving the way he has, he will make it very tough for Murray. In addition, Murray will have to focus on his own second serve, as Federer won’t hesitate to punish a weak delivery.
Head to Head
Finally, let’s examine their head-to-head rivalry before coming to a conclusion. Federer leads by only one match, so it’s tough to say who has “the edge” in this rivalry. However, their last three meetings have gone the way of Federer in a rather straightforward fashion. This could play into Murray’s head, as well as boost Federer’s confidence, especially considering that Murray hasn’t beaten Federer or Djokovic since 2013. The head-to-head at slams is 4-1 in favour of Federer, while they sit tied at 1-1 on grass.
One striking statistic from this rivalry, is that Murray is 6-1 in deciding sets against Federer, including 1-0 in fifth sets. Of Federer’s 12 wins against Murray, 9 have come in straight sets, while 2 more of them were in 4 sets. It seems that if Federer wants to get this win, he’ll have to maintain his concentration and close it out without letting Murray have much of a look. Murray on the other hand will hope for a longer affair.
Prediction
Roger Federer and Andy Murray are both playing incredible tennis, but it’s hard to get past the fact that Federer has been in near-perfect form. If there is one factor that could potentially favour Murray, it’s that in recent years Federer has played well in early rounds of tournaments, but gone away for the big matches. However, this seems to have been the case more-so against Nadal and Djokovic, whereas Federer hasn’t had any problems with Murray since 2013. Murray also won’t have the same home crowd support that he had in his previous matches, as Federer is a universal fan favourite no matter where he plays.
If Federer maintains his focus and both players continue playing at their current levels, it will be a great match, but Murray will have his hands full.
Conclusion: Federer in a close four sets.